Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

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My Perspective

February 24, 2009

A few thoughts on today.

There is a difference, Mr. President between spending and investing.

Adjustable Rate Mortgages can and do adjust payments downward. This is not uncommon given the low Treasury and LIBOR rates.


A large number of loan defaults are Sub-prime Loans; but a significant number are not. They include borrowers that have (had) good credit that the borrowers themselves overextended, of their own free (enterprise) will. Bankers accomodated, they did not coerce.

Derivatives are financing vehicles that created new pools of money that were secured by existing pools of money that were secured by real estate. Then, new pools of money were created that were secured by the pools of money that were secured by the money that was secured by the real estate.

In other words, lipstick was put on pigs, and then the pigs with lipstick were put into evening gowns. No new pigs, just made up and then dressed up. This was to accomodate buyer demand- not to create buyer demand.

Keeping up with the Joneses created the demand. Get rich quick by flipping property strategies created demand.

Lastly, you cannot reduce the principal owed on a loan without hurting the investors who put their money into mortgage bonds. If you do, investors won’t buy bonds, and the money won’t go back into the market to create new loans- UNLESS you increase the return (raise rates) to make up for the losses over time (a long time).

Now, as much as it scares me, we have to count on people that can make their payments, to make their payments- no matter how attractive the government makes it to default. This is where those who make sacrifices do so for the greater good when it isn’t fair.

We arrived at this place as a result of greed and our best chance for recovery is integrity.

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Where from Here?

May 30, 2008

While property values continue to show declines nationally; some areas are showing meaningful signs of a bottom.

Now is the time to shop.

Rates are bottoming also, as increasingly The Fed turns its focus toward inflation concerns.

Now is the time to shop.

First Stop – Pre-Approval

In busy markets the best practice of real estate agents is to have the prospective buyer speak with a Lender before seeing any property. First, this puts the buyer into the right price range for their budget; and second, it makes for a more efficient home search.

The real values in the market place are moving fast. Over priced homes where the seller is holding out and hanging on to a market-gone-by are the homes that are languishing and giving the impression of a sluggish market.

Unfortunately, some agents, (even with $4/gallon gas) are so excited to have a warm body in the car, that they skip the pre-approval process. This can end in much heartache when the home one falls in love with is beyond one’s loan qualification; or worse, down the road the payments overwhelm the new owner’s budget.

It’s simple to get pre-approved, with an actual loan approval based on income and credit. The rest of the qualifying is reviewed once a property is found and put under contract and appraised. This actually assists in the price negotiation, because the buyer is ready to move quickly to closing.

Next Stop – The American Dream

It’s not corny- owning your home gives you a sense of pride, security, and an investment foundation for the future.

It is a great time to look at real estate- just make sure you get the process in order to make sure your dream doesn’t turn into a nightmare.

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The Truth about Real Estate and Mortgages Today

January 21, 2008

The scapegoat, with some culpability of course, continues to be “sub-prime mortgages”.

As usual, The Truth is more complex.

In 1991, our economy was just bouncing back from a slow down and record high foreclosure rates. This is a foggy memory for most of us. Great times ensued.

Post 9/11, the financial markets were rocked and cash flooded the ever reliable real estate market. Over development and rising prices didn’t dissuade anyone. More product, buy more. Prices rise, flip and buy more. Anyone can play, no experience necessary.

Wall Street seized this opportunity to restore its capital appeal with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and mortgage-backed securities. Their ever-growing appetite required “new” mortgage instruments to accommodate more buyers- now securities analysts were authoring guidelines for mortgages, not just mortgage bankers.

The frenzy drove prices higher creating a large gap of affordability for the homeowner. More accommodations to draw more buyers and investors. More development; more rising prices.

Rising property values translated into higher tax revenues. Short-sighted politicians planned budgets as if the trend would continue spending the tax windfall on long term spending projects and new jobs.

Insurers raise rates. (Despite fewer storms in Florida for two years). Higher home values- more risk, more return.

Higher home prices, taxes and insurances costs translate into higher wages to attract and keep employees near business centers.

And we should have seen it coming.

Home appreciation rates were unsustainable. We know real estate is cyclical, and yet politicians chose to ignore this. Then when faced with cuts into programs launched during the euphoria, they have the unconscionable gall to use fear tactics, claiming cuts would have to come in Essential Services. Were we so under-protected in 2001? How could politicians budget for new arenas and levy taxes to pay for projects that prudent private sector investor would not touch with a 20-foot pole?

Greed and a lack of restraint have brought us to this place, not simply “sub-prime mortgages”. We live in larger homes than we need; we speculate in areas outside of our expertise; we choose to use the facts that support our arguments and special interests; we seek to profit in the moment and ignore the consequences.

The cure is not a bail-out that transfers the burden back to tax payers (tacit socialism). Unfortunately the cure is for us to fail. To rebound and rebuild. To take the losses, and pay the cost. The market will correct at a large cost to us all as we absorb the ripples that Greed has created, and Fairness will not preside over the process.

Now is the time to consider preventative measures without a doubt, but the market will purge the obvious perpetrators; we need to look at the factors outside of market forces that allow this situation to manifest. Incompetence in government has exacerbated this problem with irresponsible spending and lack of restraint. Many a homeowner would be far more able to afford the adjustment in their loan payment if taxes and insurance had not doubled over this period.

Ultimately the public needs to understand the responsibility that give to elected officials and hold them accountable. We must ask the questions and not be satisfied until we understand the answer. If they can’t give a clear explanation, they are not qualified to serve.

 Ultimately, we are responsible.

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The Truth about Real Estate and Mortgages Today

December 17, 2007

The scapegoat, with some culpability of course, continues to be “sub-prime mortgages”.

As usual, The Truth is more complex.

 

In 1991, our economy was just bouncing back from a slow down and record high foreclosure rates. This is a foggy memory for most of us. Great times ensued.

Post 9/11, the financial markets were rocked and cash flooded the ever reliable real estate market. Over development and rising prices didn’t dissuade anyone. More product, buy more. Prices rise, flip and buy more. Anyone can play, no experience necessary.

Wall Street seized this opportunity to restore its capital appeal with Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and mortgage-backed securities. Their ever-growing appetite required “new” mortgage instruments to accommodate more buyers- now securities analysts were authoring guidelines for mortgages, not just mortgage bankers.

The frenzy drove prices higher creating a large gap of affordability for the homeowner. More accommodations to draw more buyers and investors. More development; more rising prices.

 

Rising property values translated into higher tax revenues. Short-sighted politicians planned budgets as if the trend would continue spending the tax windfall on long term spending projects and new jobs.

 

Insurers raise rates. (Despite fewer storms in Florida for two years). Higher home values- more risk, more return.

 

Higher home prices, taxes and insurances costs translate into higher wages to attract and keep employees near business centers.

 

And we should have seen it coming.

 

Home appreciation rates were unsustainable. We know real estate is cyclical, and yet politicians chose to ignore this. Then when faced with cuts into programs launched during the euphoria, they have the unconscionable gall to use fear tactics, claiming cuts would have to come in Essential Services. Were we so under-protected in 2001? How could politicians budget for new arenas and levy taxes to pay for projects that prudent private sector investor would not touch with a 20-foot pole?

 

Greed and a lack of restraint have brought us to this place, not simply “sub-prime mortgages”. We live in larger homes than we need; we speculate in areas outside of our expertise; we choose to use the facts that support our arguments and special interests; we seek to profit in the moment and ignore the consequences.

 

The cure is not a bail-out that transfers the burden back to tax payers (tacit socialism). Unfortunately the cure is for us to fail. To rebound and rebuild. To take the losses, and pay the cost. The market will correct at a large cost to us all as we absorb the ripples that Greed has created, and Fairness will not preside over the process.

 

Now is the time to consider preventative measures without a doubt, but the market will purge the obvious perpetrators; we need to look at the factors outside of market forces that allow this situation to manifest. Incompetence in government has exacerbated this problem with irresponsible spending and lack of restraint. Many a homeowner would be far more able to afford the adjustment in their loan payment if taxes and insurance had not doubled over this period.

 

Ultimately the public needs to understand the responsibility that give to elected officials and hold them accountable. We must ask the questions and not be satisfied until we understand the answer. If they can’t give a clear explanation, they are not qualified to serve.

 Ultimately, we are responsible.

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The More You Know…

August 20, 2007

I continue to be disappointed by experts not knowing what they don’t know. Each time one of these “experts” parrots the phrase “mortgage meltdown” in the media, it extends the life cycle of the problem. They stumble across the commercial paper aspect of the problem. Lenders are supposed to disclose according to the Truth-in-lending Act- why can’t we get some truth in reporting on lending. It would require some homework, or they could interview some real mortgage experts.

  1. “Alt A” loans are not Sub-prime loans. Thornburg for example is an “A” paper lender, caught in a break down of commercial paper markets. Has anyone asked them if their assets are performing? Talk about the actual relative performance of assets by risk grade instead of just saying, “mortgage meltdown”? Talk about specific relative mortgage segment performance: A-paper, Alt-A, Sub-prime, home equity, Jumbo prime paper (Thornburg)?
  2. Our grandparents had little choice but to put down 20% because there was no risk-based pricing model based on credit like there is today. The Fannie and Freddie engines are working just fine. Today we can substitute good credit for cash and lending can be sound. American Home Mortgage, among others, invested heavily in the “exotic mortgages” that are often characterized as “sub-prime”. These loans were NOT 100% loan-to-value programs and required good credit borrowers (typically 680+ credit scores). The deferred interest potential is offset in a typical appreciation market of 5-6%, and required a minimum 5% down (115% growth cap), most 10% down (125% growth cap).
  3. As an investment real estate is: non-liquid; has no guarantee of principal; and gives no rate of return on additional principal contributions. The only strengths are in tax advantages and leverage. Take those away and we are all better off renting.
  4. These loans were not the product of booming real estate values per se. This is chicken and egg. The abuses of these were consumer responses to achieving a certain lifestyle. In other words, borrowers weren’t satisfied with moderate housing, so they went upscale with an “Option ARM” to keep up with the Jones. The borrower may have been coached, or the transactional mortgage broker (living from transaction to transaction with no regard for the client’s future) may have lied, but one read through the disclosures and the borrower would have an understanding or enough fear to ask questions. Yes, conspiracy. Title and Attorney Closing agents even do a quick overview of the note at closing. Do they see borrowers with glassy eyes signing these notes? Are they notarizing documents they don’t review or ask if the borrower understands? When these show up in court, will the authors of the Truth-in-Lending Act be named in the suit? Call it immediate gratification or greed or whatever you like from borrowers- this is not new behavior.
  5. Legislators created permanent budgets on the cyclical rising property values and therefore taxes have created an affordability problem that is as much to blame in most markets as adjusting mortgage rates for defaults.
  6. Insurance costs have contributed to rising home costs and have an impact on defaults.

I heard one analyst as if he were doing an exposé describing how he repeatedly asked lenders if the had relaxed their underwriting standards over the course of the last couple of years- “And they said they had not”. I’m hoping as an analyst he was fired, because one cursory look at the lender’s matrices over the course of two years would have clearly demonstrated they had.

By the way, let me describe a loan program to you. 10% down required, payment rate of 2.5%, with an actual note rate of 8%, so the potential to defer interest (add back to the loan balance) is 5.5%, but this can change as often as month an annualized basis. The loan can grow to 125% of the original balance over a 5-year period, when the loan is subject to recast. Your experts they are probably thinking “Option ARM”, one of those new exotic loans that sprang up during the roaring 2001-2005 real estate boom. They would be right; but, they would also be right if they were recalling the mid 1980’s and a loan called the “Flex”, that had been very popular during the days of 14-16% mortgage rates in the day that sparked a refinance wave back then. History repeats itself?

I’d like somebody to talk about the “perfect storm”, bubbles bursting, legislatures’ misappropriations and over-taxing while property and health insurance rates get out of control. And maybe get the “experts” to do some research, because as the Kia folks say, “the more you know, the less you don’t know”.

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The Team Approach

August 17, 2007

Do you view your mortgage as a Loan or as a Financial Instrument? What did your Financial Planner, CPA, or Estate Planner say about your last financing decision? If you don’t have one or more of these professionals, don’t stop reading! If you do have these professionals working for you- are they working together for you? For most people their mortgage represents their largest and most important personal debt obligation while their home represents their most significant and largest asset. Yet, most consumers lack a plan to manage their mortgage and consumer debt. This isn’t the fault of the consumer. Quite simply, most mortgage companies and banks loan originators lack the experience, training and tools necessary to provide a complete analysis to create a comprehensive plan.
A successful retirement someday will be the result of a comprehensive plan today. Even the best investment and/or tax advise can be hindered or eroded by the wrong debt structure. A Mortgage Plan will have a powerful impact on your overall financial plan, whether it be optimizing equity or debt, aligning the mortgage with financial goals, adjusting for life events, or saving money by identifying the “best mortgage” (the lowest rate on the right loan).
The Team Approach involves the consideration of cashflow and the impacts of interest rate, appreciation rate, tax consequences, and investment returns over time. In the same way that you would expect a General Practioner to call upon specialists, you should have specialists for each of the financial areas that impact your long term goals.The Team Approach is an opportunity for you to assemble top-notch professionals in these areas and for them to work together to build a comprehensive plan to build your long term wealth the best way. There is no extra cost involved in having these services coordinated, but the payoff can be huge.
With over 20 years of experience, American Home Financial is one of the rare practioners with the certifications (CM PS and CMC) skills and tools to be part of your Team.

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Borrowers Feel Their ARMs Getting Twisted

August 10, 2007

Approximately 65% of the licensed mortgage brokers in business today have less than 5 years of experience. These loan originators were taught how to get people qualified under the most profitable program available. These inexperienced originators were focused on the transaction today, not the client down the road.

The easiest sales were Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) with profits hidden in the margin, especially the Cash-flow Option ARMs, offering a payment rate as low as 1%.

When a loan rate adjusts, it adjusts based on the Index (a benchmark which reflects current market rates, i.e. the One Year Treasury Bill, or the London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR), or the Prime Rate (the Fed Funds Rate plus 3%). To this benchmark, one adds the Margin- that is, the Profit Margin for the Lender/Bank. Margins typically range from 2.25 to 2.75, but often can be as high as 3.25 or more.

When distracted by a Payment Rate of 1%, the typical borrower can easily forget that the real rate of interest is that Index Rate (LIBOR today is around 5.34%) plus the Margin could result in a real rate between 7.54% and 8.59%. Originators make money selling the closed loans to Lenders. Lenders make more money when the loan has a higher Margin, therefore they pay more to the originator to encourage higher margins.

This abuse has created an unfortunate backlash against good loans improperly used. A Harris Interactive poll of 2,383 U.S. adults released last month indicated the a hugh majority don’t trust mortgage advertising and most do not like ARMs or Interest Only loans.

Indeed, a renewal of “Depression Era Thinking” is occurring that will cost the average borrower $25,000 over a five year period when compared with proper debt and equity management.

This “Depression Era Thinking” is the practice of prepayment of loan principal and shorter fixed term loans. Prior generations were taught that owning one’s home free of any debt would protect the ownership and value of the home because early mortgages were callable- the bank could simply call the loan because they needed the cash, even if the borrower had a perfect payment history. This is no longer possible, but this nonetheless started the practices. Like the tradition of cutting off the ends off a roast passed down through the generations, a grand-daughter preparing the family dinner one night asked how it effected the roast’s flavor. The grandmother recalled that she actually did that because her old oven was too small for it to fit the whole roast- it had nothing to do with the present day rationale for the practice.

The $25,000 mistake that most borrowers make is in prepaying their mortgage. If one were to put down $20,000 and buy a home for $100,000, and realize no appreciation for 5 years, and then sell the home for $100,000, they would walk away with $20,000 (less the cost of sale). The $20,000 had no rate of return.

If the same borrower bought for $100,000, with $20,000 down, and realized 5% appreciation, they would walk away with $47,628. The appreciation of $27,628, plus their original $20,000, which again had no rate of return. In other words the rate of appreciation has nothing to do with whether the property has a mortgage, and additional payments to principal earn no rate of return. In fact, the build up of equity makes the home more attractive to the bank in foreclosure, and gives the bank less reason to work with a borrower in distress. It is easy to conclude then that prepayments actually reduce the bank’s risk while increasing the borrower’s risk.

The prepayments are plowed into an “investment” that has no rate of return, can lose value and is not liquid. Not the kind of “investment” that a prudent saver would use!

Consider two brothers with identical income and the same amount of savings, $100,000. One buys a $500,000 home with a 15 year fixed loan at 5.875% APR using all of his savings for a 20% down payment. His payment is $3,348, but after tax deductions feels like $2,983. He also adds an extra $200 per month to prepay the loan.

His brother also buys a $500,000 home, but with only 5% down, he takes a 6.375% Interest Only 30 year loan. His monthly payment is $2,523, which after tax dedductions feels like $1,690.He leaves the remaining $75,000 in  a safe, guaranteed, money-making Investment Account earning 6%. Every month he sends the monthly payment savings difference of $1,293 plus the same extra $200 his brother does into his Investment Account.

Five years later, the first brother has received $33,796 in tax savings, but has no Investment Account.

The second brother has received $49,955 in tax savings and his Investment Account has grown to $205,330. This strategy will ultimately allow the brother to pay off his loan more quickly than the first brother anyway.

Now, which would you rather be if you suddenly lost your job, or became disabled. Both brothers have equity in their homes, but neither could qualify for a loan to extract it! Brother Two has a significant cash reserve to sustain him through difficult times.

The facts are that the average first-time homebuyer owns a home for an average 3 years; a move-up buyer averages 7 years; and the average life of a mortgage loan is 5 years. For the average borrower, a 30 year loan is a waste of interest, and the principal paid over these time frames is much less than the lost investment opportunity.

The answer lies in the fact that the best loan is the lowest rate on the right loan. These are rarely short term ARMs with monthly, 6-month, or even 1 year adjustment periods. Many Clients can be well served by intermediate term hybrid ARMs with guaranteed 5, 7, and 10 year fixed periods with annual adjustments after the fixed period, and with Interest Only options for the right Clients. Rates could cycle lower during the term or the savings will more than offset the cost of a refinance if the Client wants to extend the term or separate appreciation equity from the home.

The best loan scenario will match the Clients goals for how long they want to own the home, how aggressively they want to save, and will match income trends and life cycle changes (marriage, kids, college, retirement). This is best accomplished by a Certified Mortgage Planner with several years of experience, who uses a regular process of annual review to assure the plan continues to meet the client’s goals.

Visit www.flmtgplanner.com

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The State of Lending

July 15, 2007

As many as 65% of the individuals licensed as mortgage brokers or loan officers not required to have individual licenses entered the industry since 2001.

Many of these individuals originate less than 3 loans per month.

Many of these individuals have never had a mortgage of their own.

Most have no financial training beyond their licensure requirements and minimal continuing education requirements, which have little practical value. The vast amount of their practical experience has been gained On The Job- originating loans for consumers.

Consumers often are attracted be advertising of low rates with little disclosure, and handed off to one of these inexperienced, profit-motivated, inside sales people for the handling of what is typically the largest single obligation that an individual consumer makes.

Seek out Experience You Can Trust, For Your Best Interest. The Best Rate is the Lowest Rate on the Right Loan.

A reputable, skilled and experienced lender will match your income trend, fiscal risk tolerance, and your life timeline to the best solution.

Seek out a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist / Certified Mortgage Consultant that will establish an integrated financial plan to enhance your cash-flow and savings goals, and who will disclose total loan cost over the life of the loan.

If the cost is the same or lower, work with a professional who is qualified to give you the best advice.

Michael Noel, CMPS, CMC, MBA

American Home Financial Services Corporation

http://www.flmtgplanner.com

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Give your mortgage an annual once over!

May 29, 2007

If the last time you looked at your mortgage was when you closed on your loan, it’s time to take it out for an annual once over. New loan programs and opportunities to leverage your home equity can bring you lower mortgage payments and new investment opportunities. Ask us about the fastest & safest way to pay off your loan, while helping you to build long-term wealth.


Is a fixed rate mortgage the best choice for you?

Many of us opt for the certainty of a 20 year or 30 year fixed rate mortgage when we get our first mortgage. If you anticipate selling your home within the next 10 years, one of our adjustable rate mortgages or new hybrid loans may be a better financial fit for you. Hybrid loans typically have a lower fixed rate than a traditional 20 or 30 year mortgage. The savings you receive can well be worth switching to a hybrid loan.

Are you paying for Private Mortgage Insurance (PMI)?

There are a lot of new loan programs available that can help you eliminate PMI, even if you have less than 20% equity in your home. The monthly savings adds up quickly.  This money can be put to better use to help you achieve other short-term and long-term financial goals.

Are your taxes and insurance up to date?

Even though your mortgage servicer is responsible for paying your taxes and insurance out of your escrow account, it just makes sense to periodically check to see that these payments are being made properly. While you’re at it, you’ll want to review your homeowner’s insurance policy. It’s a good idea to review your policy every two to three years to make sure it covers recent home improvements, replacement costs for the contents of your home, and that its reconstruction coverage is keeping pace with inflation.

Do you have a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) for emergencies?

Many homeowners are making the proactive choice to secure a Home Equity Line of Credit (HELOC) for emergencies.  A HELOC is a revolving line of credit that only charges interest when you actually draw money from the line of credit. As you repay the balance of the draw, the credit becomes available again. Securing a HELOC in advance can be a great help if you’re ever laid off or have an unexpected medical or other emergency.

How’s your credit report?

The information in your credit report has a huge impact on whether or not you will again qualify for a mortgage loan.  That’s why it’s important to periodically check your credit report.

Now it’s even easy to do so. A recent amendment to the federal Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) mandates that each credit reporting company provide you with a free copy of your credit report, at your request, once a year. To request your free credit report, visit http://www.annualcreditreport.com. 

Are you making the most of your home’s equity?

With rising home prices, you may have more equity in your home than you realize.  Taking out a home equity loan to payoff credit card debt, car loans and other higher interest debts may make good financial sense. Let us show you how to become Debt-free faster, with less risk, and without cash-flow compromise.

Are you on track to meet your Retirement Goals?

The greatest investment advantages of real estate are the tax advantages and favorable leverage it offers. If you are a good money manager, your home could be the key to haing your own Private Bank. Ask us how to control your equity for a more successful retirement.

Is it time to refinance?

The timing might be right to refinance your mortgage loan.  New rates may help you significantly lower your monthly payment. Or you might want to “cash out” some of the built-up equity in your home, which you can use to consolidate debt, improve your home, take a vacation – whatever! Perhaps by refinancing you can even pay off your mortgage sooner! 

We’ll work with you to determine if the timing is right to change your loan program, considering your cash on hand, how likely you are to sell your home in the near future, and what effect refinancing might have on your future plans.

Michael Noel, CMPS, CMC, MBA

American Home Financial Services Corporation

http://www.flmtgplanner.com

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Mortgage Rates

May 29, 2007

Mortgage Rates Are Important!

When shopping for mortgage rates however, the most important consideration should be the lowest mortgage rate on the right mortgage loan. This will create the Best Mortgage Loan!

Today more than ever, the mortgage loan is a critical component of your overall financial plan. Optimizing your cash flow and savings require smart decisions in terms of Debt Strategy and Equity Management.

Making these decisions require analyzing your current situation and your future financial goals.

  1. What is your timeline? For owing your home (how long have you typically lived at an address); for job changes, career changes, marriage, family…and retirement?
  2. What is your income trend? Is your income increasing, level, or decreasing- and is this a long term trend?
  3. What is your financial attitude? Are you conservative, moderate or aggressive?

The appropriate program matches your profile and may mean an adjustable rate mortgage is better thean a fixed; or vice versa- even though the latest news says one thing or another.

Financial Priorities

Your plans need to be organized into these four major goals:

  1. Emergency Cash
  2. Significant Liquidity
  3. Debt-freedom (on your personal financial statement)
  4. Sufficient Wealth for Retirement.

The typical loan officer or mortgage broker will not ask about these factors, so it is important to consult a qualified Mortgage Planner. Contact us today!

Michael Noel, CMPS, CMC, MBA

American Home Financial Services Corporation

http://www.flmtgplanner.com

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